EXPLAINED: How might Russia react to Sweden and Finland joining Nato?
One of the big unknowns of Sweden's Nato process is how Russia will respond. We run through the options.
Sweden's rush towards membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), arguably starts with the draft treaty Russia published on December 17th, which sought to bar Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance by demanding that the US “undertake to prevent" its "further eastward expansion".
Five months later, this gambit has backfired completely: Russia has ended up creating the very situation it sought to prevent.
So what will Russia do?
The Swedish government's report assessing Nato membership concluded last week that Russia "would react negatively to a Swedish Nato membership".
"Nato does not seek confrontation with Russia, nor does it constitute a threat to Russia," the report claims. "In recent years, however, Russia has chosen to increasingly view Nato as a geopolitical competitor and opposes the addition of new members. For Russia’s part, Swedish membership would be described as Nato advancing its position."
How has Russia reacted so far?
In the months running up to Sweden's and Finland's Nato decision, Russian officials warned repeatedly that the two country's joining Nato would have negative consequences.
Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev in mid-April warned of nuclear escalation. “If this is done, no non-nuclear status of the Baltic will be possible,” he said. “The balance must be restored.”
The result for Sweden and Finland, he continued, would be nuclear-armed Russian ships just “arm’s length” from their homes.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned on Monday that the two countries’ decision to join the Nato was a "grave mistake with far-reaching consequences” and that "the general level of military tensions will increase".
But President Vladimir Putin was more sanguine.
“Russia has no problems with these states. There is no immediate threat to Russia,” he said at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which groups Russia with Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. “But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response.”
Online propaganda and influence campaigns
According to the Swedish government report, the most probable Russian course of action involves "various types of influence activities".
"These could be directed against the Swedish general public and specifically against Swedish decision-makers," it argues.
When it comes to decision-makers, Sweden should be prepared for "hack and leak" operations in the mold of the Democratic National Committee email hack that helped swing the 2016 election for Donald Trump.
Members of Sweden's government might see sensitive private documents leaked, perhaps regarding relations with Nato, but also about other issues -- for example the Covid-19 response, arms deals, their private lives, or their financial affairs.
Russia has already done this in Sweden at least once. It has been accused of hacking the Swedish Sports Confederation as part of a campaign to smear international athletes for doping.
Russia is also likely to use online propaganda, such as automated and human-run accounts on Twitter and Facebook, both to sway the Swedish public against Nato and to sow general disarray in Swedish society.
According to Mikael Tofvesson at Sweden's Psychological Defence Agency, in the run-up to Sweden's decision on Monday there was a "significant increase in articles and posts concerning both Sweden and Finland and the Nato issue", which he said has been "an attempt to create a picture of the risks that come with Nato membership".
In April, Tofvesson argued that Russia's influence operations seemed to have become less effective since the invasion of Ukraine.
Funding political and protest groups
Russian agents claiming to be US citizens have been shown to have channeled money to protest groups in the run-up to the US elections of 2016, and it is possible that Russia might give similar funding to groups in Sweden to destabilise society, probably without the groups even being aware of it.
As the European Union seeks to wean itself off Russian gas and oil, Russia might give money to protestors against wind farms, for instance.
Interfering with the acceptance process within Nato
The Swedish-Kurdish journalist Kurdo Baksi has suggested in Sweden's Expressen newspaper that Turkey's moves to hinder Swedish and Finnish membership might be part of a deal with Russia.
"Erdogan is currently running errands for Moscow within Nato, in order to get a free hand from Vladimir Putin to invade even more Syrian-Kurdish territory and declare himself the winner before the June 2023 election," he argued.
Croatia's president, Zoran Milanović on Wednesday said he would instruct Croatia's Nato ambassador Mario Nobilo to vote against admitting Finland and Sweden unless an election law in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, which he said discriminated against ethnic Croats, is changed.
Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenković has accused Milanović of being pro-Russian, pointing to his attacks on the Ukrainian government as "corrupt" in the run-up to Russia's invasion", and his description of the West of "war-mongering".
Plenković on Wednesday condemned Milanović's attempt to block Swedish and Finnish membership as "a pro-Russian stance".
"He is the only one who advocates that. Only those who advocate pro-Russian views can be satisfied with such attitude," he said.
Hungary is another Nato country with close historic links to the Kremlin. Its leader, Prime Minister Victor Orban, played a big role in blocking an EU embargo on Russian oil. Since the invasion of Ukraine, however, he has largely sought to distance himself from Moscow.
Business barriers
Most Swedish businesses have already cut their ties to Russia, but in the medium to long term, Russia could seek to punish Sweden by barring its companies from the Russian market, or by denying it access to Russian raw materials or energy.
As natural gas plays a very minor role in the energy mix, and the country is moving away from petrol and diesel, Sweden is less vulnerable to this sort of pressure than many other countries in the EU.
Cyberattacks
On 14th January, more than a dozen of Ukrainian government websites were taken offline for a few hours and 70 attacked, mainly through so-called DDoS attacks. A second attack, on February 15th, was traced by UK and US intelligence to Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU).
Sweden will be braced for similar attacks on its government websites, and also on important private online services for citizens, such as BankID, in the run-up and aftermath of Nato accession.
Military build-up
Russia has warned that Finland and Sweden joining Nato will double the alliance's border with Russia, forcing Russia to respond.
Russia's defence minister, Sergej Sjojgu, on May 20th said that twelve new military units would be established in Russia's 'western district' near the border with Finland in response to Nato's expansion.
After Finland and Sweden join the alliance, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is now entirely surrounded by Nato countries, which may prompt Russia to place more troops, ships, missiles, and other military infrastructure there.
After Medvedev threatened that nuclear weapons would need to be placed in Kaliningrad, Lithuania's defence minister, Arvydas Anusauskas retorted that it is widely known that Russia already has nuclear weapons in the city.
Incursions into Swedish waters or airspace
In the run-up to Sweden entering Nato, Russian planes have twice made incursions into Swedish airspace, with three jets flying near the island of Gotland in early March, and a reconnaissance aircraft in southern Sweden at the end of April.
If Sweden and Finland join Nato such incursions could become much more common as Russia seeks to assert itself in the Baltic.
Military attacks
The island of Gotland is strategic for control of the Baltic Sea, and there is a small but real chance that Russia will see the interim period between Sweden's application to Nato and its accession as its last chance to seize the island.
This is why the US, UK, Germany, France, and the Nordic countries have all given security assurances to Sweden, with Denmark and Norway in particular pledging to fight alongside Sweden if it is attacked.
The US assault ship USS Kearsarge is currently on its way to Stockholm, and it is likely that there will be a constant Nato presence near Gotland during the application process.
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Sweden's rush towards membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), arguably starts with the draft treaty Russia published on December 17th, which sought to bar Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance by demanding that the US “undertake to prevent" its "further eastward expansion".
Five months later, this gambit has backfired completely: Russia has ended up creating the very situation it sought to prevent.
So what will Russia do?
The Swedish government's report assessing Nato membership concluded last week that Russia "would react negatively to a Swedish Nato membership".
"Nato does not seek confrontation with Russia, nor does it constitute a threat to Russia," the report claims. "In recent years, however, Russia has chosen to increasingly view Nato as a geopolitical competitor and opposes the addition of new members. For Russia’s part, Swedish membership would be described as Nato advancing its position."
How has Russia reacted so far?
In the months running up to Sweden's and Finland's Nato decision, Russian officials warned repeatedly that the two country's joining Nato would have negative consequences.
Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev in mid-April warned of nuclear escalation. “If this is done, no non-nuclear status of the Baltic will be possible,” he said. “The balance must be restored.”
The result for Sweden and Finland, he continued, would be nuclear-armed Russian ships just “arm’s length” from their homes.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned on Monday that the two countries’ decision to join the Nato was a "grave mistake with far-reaching consequences” and that "the general level of military tensions will increase".
But President Vladimir Putin was more sanguine.
“Russia has no problems with these states. There is no immediate threat to Russia,” he said at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which groups Russia with Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. “But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response.”
Online propaganda and influence campaigns
According to the Swedish government report, the most probable Russian course of action involves "various types of influence activities".
"These could be directed against the Swedish general public and specifically against Swedish decision-makers," it argues.
When it comes to decision-makers, Sweden should be prepared for "hack and leak" operations in the mold of the Democratic National Committee email hack that helped swing the 2016 election for Donald Trump.
Members of Sweden's government might see sensitive private documents leaked, perhaps regarding relations with Nato, but also about other issues -- for example the Covid-19 response, arms deals, their private lives, or their financial affairs.
Russia has already done this in Sweden at least once. It has been accused of hacking the Swedish Sports Confederation as part of a campaign to smear international athletes for doping.
Russia is also likely to use online propaganda, such as automated and human-run accounts on Twitter and Facebook, both to sway the Swedish public against Nato and to sow general disarray in Swedish society.
According to Mikael Tofvesson at Sweden's Psychological Defence Agency, in the run-up to Sweden's decision on Monday there was a "significant increase in articles and posts concerning both Sweden and Finland and the Nato issue", which he said has been "an attempt to create a picture of the risks that come with Nato membership".
In April, Tofvesson argued that Russia's influence operations seemed to have become less effective since the invasion of Ukraine.
Funding political and protest groups
Russian agents claiming to be US citizens have been shown to have channeled money to protest groups in the run-up to the US elections of 2016, and it is possible that Russia might give similar funding to groups in Sweden to destabilise society, probably without the groups even being aware of it.
As the European Union seeks to wean itself off Russian gas and oil, Russia might give money to protestors against wind farms, for instance.
Interfering with the acceptance process within Nato
The Swedish-Kurdish journalist Kurdo Baksi has suggested in Sweden's Expressen newspaper that Turkey's moves to hinder Swedish and Finnish membership might be part of a deal with Russia.
"Erdogan is currently running errands for Moscow within Nato, in order to get a free hand from Vladimir Putin to invade even more Syrian-Kurdish territory and declare himself the winner before the June 2023 election," he argued.
Croatia's president, Zoran Milanović on Wednesday said he would instruct Croatia's Nato ambassador Mario Nobilo to vote against admitting Finland and Sweden unless an election law in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, which he said discriminated against ethnic Croats, is changed.
Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenković has accused Milanović of being pro-Russian, pointing to his attacks on the Ukrainian government as "corrupt" in the run-up to Russia's invasion", and his description of the West of "war-mongering".
Plenković on Wednesday condemned Milanović's attempt to block Swedish and Finnish membership as "a pro-Russian stance".
"He is the only one who advocates that. Only those who advocate pro-Russian views can be satisfied with such attitude," he said.
Hungary is another Nato country with close historic links to the Kremlin. Its leader, Prime Minister Victor Orban, played a big role in blocking an EU embargo on Russian oil. Since the invasion of Ukraine, however, he has largely sought to distance himself from Moscow.
Business barriers
Most Swedish businesses have already cut their ties to Russia, but in the medium to long term, Russia could seek to punish Sweden by barring its companies from the Russian market, or by denying it access to Russian raw materials or energy.
As natural gas plays a very minor role in the energy mix, and the country is moving away from petrol and diesel, Sweden is less vulnerable to this sort of pressure than many other countries in the EU.
Cyberattacks
On 14th January, more than a dozen of Ukrainian government websites were taken offline for a few hours and 70 attacked, mainly through so-called DDoS attacks. A second attack, on February 15th, was traced by UK and US intelligence to Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU).
Sweden will be braced for similar attacks on its government websites, and also on important private online services for citizens, such as BankID, in the run-up and aftermath of Nato accession.
Military build-up
Russia has warned that Finland and Sweden joining Nato will double the alliance's border with Russia, forcing Russia to respond.
Russia's defence minister, Sergej Sjojgu, on May 20th said that twelve new military units would be established in Russia's 'western district' near the border with Finland in response to Nato's expansion.
After Finland and Sweden join the alliance, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is now entirely surrounded by Nato countries, which may prompt Russia to place more troops, ships, missiles, and other military infrastructure there.
After Medvedev threatened that nuclear weapons would need to be placed in Kaliningrad, Lithuania's defence minister, Arvydas Anusauskas retorted that it is widely known that Russia already has nuclear weapons in the city.
Incursions into Swedish waters or airspace
In the run-up to Sweden entering Nato, Russian planes have twice made incursions into Swedish airspace, with three jets flying near the island of Gotland in early March, and a reconnaissance aircraft in southern Sweden at the end of April.
If Sweden and Finland join Nato such incursions could become much more common as Russia seeks to assert itself in the Baltic.
Military attacks
The island of Gotland is strategic for control of the Baltic Sea, and there is a small but real chance that Russia will see the interim period between Sweden's application to Nato and its accession as its last chance to seize the island.
This is why the US, UK, Germany, France, and the Nordic countries have all given security assurances to Sweden, with Denmark and Norway in particular pledging to fight alongside Sweden if it is attacked.
The US assault ship USS Kearsarge is currently on its way to Stockholm, and it is likely that there will be a constant Nato presence near Gotland during the application process.
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